After the hustle and bustle of NBA free agency, calm has returned and the chances of winning the NBA Finals next season have changed considerably.

Paul George, by far the biggest free agent on the market this offseason, decided to leave the Los Angeles Clippers and join the Philadelphia 76ers. The move not only crushed Los Angeles’ futures odds, but also moved Philly to second place in the NBA Finals odds.

With almost every move in the off-season, there is also a counter-move regarding the chances of the team leaving a player. We have seen this with the Golden State Warriors, Clippers, and Denver Nuggets.

While we won’t really know who the winners and losers of the off-season are until the games begin this fall, we can guess who the winners and losers are. expected to take a big step forward in the 2024-25 season.

Chances via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Philadelphia 76ers

There has been no bigger winner than the Sixers so far this offseason.

Philadelphia has put all its eggs in one basket this offseason: having the cap space to sign a max player like Paul George in free agency. Well, Daryl Morey has struck gold.

George agreed to a maximum four-year contract with Philadelphia, giving the Sixers a perfect third starting lineup alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to compete with the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference.

As a result of this change, the Sixers went from +1200 to +800 in odds at DraftKings Sportsbook and to +850 in odds at FanDuel.

Philly has already overtaken the New York Knicks (+950), who were originally ranked second in the Eastern Conference championship odds after acquiring Mikal Bridges in the trade market.

While George is certainly the big move, I think the Sixers hit home runs elsewhere this offseason. They brought back wing Kelly Oubre on a reasonable two-year deal and they drafted one of the best shooters in the 2024 NBA Draft in Jared McCain.

It’s hard not to be happy with what the Sixers have done. And if Embiid and George are fit (which is questionable), the Sixers should be one of the best teams in the East in 2024-25.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City has improved significantly this offseason and they didn’t have to give up a single draft pick to do it.

The Thunder are now +850 to win the NBA Finals — tied for the best odds of any Western Conference team — after trading for Alex Caruso and signing Isaiah Hartenstein to a three-year contract. The Thunder also re-signed key bench wings Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to team-friendly deals.

The Hartenstein move should help Oklahoma City’s rebounding immensely next season, something the team has been lacking in the 2023-24 season. The Thunder finished just 28th in the league in rebounding percentage, and they lack size and strength down low outside of Chet Holmgren.

Caruso, one of the best wing/guard defenders in the NBA, is also a much better fit than Josh Giddey, who was ousted in the playoffs due to his lack of outside shooting ability. On paper, OKC is arguably the best team in the West at this point in the offseason.

Magic of Orlando

Orlando failed to make a big impression, but it did retain some key similarities with last season’s team and also managed to acquire one of the best 3D options on the market.

The Magic went from +9000 to +7500 to win the NBA Finals after signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a three-year, $66 million contract. They also retained Goga Bitadze, Gary Harris, Jonathan Isaac and Moe Wagner this offseason, key moves to add depth to their roster around star Paolo Banchero.

I’d still like to see Orlando add a point guard, but as things stand now, the Magic should be back in the playoffs in the East in 2024-25.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas’ odds have jumped from +1100 to +1000 after the major offseason move to sign sharpshooter Klay Thompson. But that may not have been the Mavs’ best move.

With a Tim Hardaway Jr. trade and the signing of Naji Marshall, the Mavericks essentially turned Josh Green, Hardaway Jr. and Derrick Jones Jr. into Thompson, Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall. Will it be better than last season?

We’ll have to wait and see, but Grimes and Marshall are rock-solid perimeter defenders, and Thompson is easily the best offensive option of the six. If Dallas can get Klay open shots — and it should, against Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic — it could have one of the best offenses in the NBA this season.

Denver Nuggets

What the hell are the Denver Nuggets doing?

Denver has a championship core but let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope go for nothing this offseason, a huge blow to the rotation and outside shooting. The Nuggets fall to +850 odds to win the NBA Finals, and it’s hard to see the vision for this team when it has the best player in the game in Nikola Jokic.

Why would you surround him with so many inexperienced young players when you already have a chance of winning the championship?

Denver is counting on Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, DaRon Holmes, Jalen Pickett and others to play significant minutes in the rotation in the 2024-25 season.

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors’ Finals odds dropped significantly when they missed out on a sign-and-trade for George (the Clippers weren’t interested). They now sit at +4000 (down from +3000) with Thompson out of the team.

Golden State made some smart moves adding De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson, but the roster around Stephen Curry is highly questionable given the Warriors’ failure to make the playoffs last season.

Los Angeles Clippers

What the hell are the Clippers doing?

They failed to sign George — largely because they didn’t want to offer him a four-year contract — and then played it out because they didn’t want to go to the second apron. Yet they were willing to offer him a three-year deal and go to the second apron for at least one of those three seasons? Something’s not right.

Los Angeles brought back James Harden but also made a confusing move by signing Kevin Porter Jr., who was out of the league last season due to a domestic violence charge.

This Los Angeles team isn’t nearly as well-equipped to deal with an injury to Kawhi Leonard now that George is gone. The bookmakers seem to agree, dropping LA from +3000 to +4500 in the latest NBA Finals odds.

The listings are updated periodically and may change.

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