09:22 ▪
min. read ▪ by
Luc Jose A.

The Bitcoin market is at a critical turning point. After months of stagnation and reduced volatility, technical indicators and price models suggest a major move is imminent. Here’s an in-depth analysis from Glassnode that provides insightful insight into market trends and key breakpoints.

Bitcoin on thin ice

The Apparent Stability of the Bitcoin Market

The Bitcoin market is currently in a period of exceptionally low volatility, with prices hovering between $60,000 and $70,000, even though the BTC price hit $58,000 this morning. This prolonged period of relative stability has led to notable apathy among investors, a stark contrast to previous cycles of high volatility. However, according to Glassnode, this compression of volatility is often a precursor to significant price movements.

Technical indicators show that the market is still on a knife edge despite price consolidation. The ratio of unrealized gains to losses, currently 8.2 times, shows a predominance of gains, which may seem reassuring. However, this situation also highlights an increased sensitivity among investors, especially those holding short-term positions, to possible downward market movements.

The Mayer Multiple analysis, which assesses the relationship between Bitcoin’s current price and its 200-day moving average, indicates that the market is at a critical turning point. With the 200DMA hovering around $58,000, this price level becomes a key indicator for evaluating the short-term bullish or bearish dynamics of the market.

In summary, while the Bitcoin market appears stable at first glance, technical indicators and the decline in volatility suggest that this calm may be short-lived.

Breakpoints and scenarios for evolution

A pivot point is around $58,000. If Bitcoin falls below this threshold, many short-term holders could find themselves at a loss, potentially leading to massive selling. This situation could put additional downward pressure, increasing market volatility.

On the other hand, consolidation between $60,000 and $64,000 would maintain the current uncertainty, characterized by a lack of a clear trend. Investors remain indecisive and this prolonged stagnation could continue to feed the recently observed apathy. However, this scenario also offers a period of stabilization, allowing market participants to better assess the conditions before making important decisions.

A decisive move above $64,000, on the other hand, would be seen as a strong bullish signal. It would return profits to many short-term holders, which could revive market optimism and attract new investments. Such a breakout could also boost institutional investor confidence and contribute to a potential rally.

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Luc Jose A. avatarLuc Jose A. avatar

Luc Jose A.

Degree in science from Toulouse and holder of the title of a blockchain certification consultant, issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure again in 2019. I discovered the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I have the involvement in raising awareness and informing the general public about this ecosystem in constant development. My goal is to make everyone better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. Every day, I strive to make an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, transmit the latest technological innovations and keep an eye on the economic and social interests of this revolution on the market.


The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.