Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Data

  • Date: July 10, 2024
  • Location: Large American baseball field
  • Starting pitchers:
    • Kyle Freeland – Rockies
    • Frankie Montas – Red

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rockies 155, Reds -175
Running line: Rockies 1.5 -135, Red -1.5 115
Over/Under Total: 9 -110

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Odds

Implied profit %: Expected profit percentage:
Colorado Rockies – 38% Colorado Rockies – 39.06%
Cincinnati Reds – 62% Cincinnati Reds – 60.94%

Implied Win % in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to measure the likelihood of an event based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the probability of a team winning a match or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies are set to face each other on July 10, 2024 at Great American Ball Park in the third game of their series. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Reds sitting at a 44-48 record and the Rockies a dismal 32-60. Despite their below-average performance, the Reds hold a glaring advantage going into this matchup.

Right-handed pitcher Frankie Montas will take the mound for the Reds. Montas has had some luck this season, posting a 4.19 ERA, but with underlying metrics like a 4.80 xERA that suggest regression. He has a 4-6 record in 16 starts and is ranked #99 among MLB starting pitchers according to the industry-leading projection system, THE BAT X. Montas is projected to pitch approximately 6.0 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs and strikeout an average of 6.2 batters.

On the other hand, the Rockies will counter with left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has had a rough year. Freeland’s 6.62 ERA is among the worst in MLB, and his 0-3 record through seven starts reflects his struggles. However, his 4.90 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could see some improvement. Freeland is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allow 3.1 earned runs and strikeout 3.8 batters.

The Reds’ offense has been poor overall, ranking 23rd in MLB, with a particularly poor team batting average of 27th. However, they do lead the league in stolen bases, which could be a factor against Freeland. Spencer Steer has been a bright spot for Cincinnati, with four homers and eight RBIs this past week with a 1.192 OPS.

The Rockies’ offense is slightly better, ranking 19th overall, but they’re still below average in home runs and stolen bases. Brenton Doyle has been on fire lately, batting .500 and having an OPS of 1.683 in his last six games.

Cincinnati’s bullpen, ranked 26th, is worse than Colorado’s, ranked 22nd. This could play a role late in the game, but since the Reds are heavy favorites at -175, their implied odds of winning are 62%. The Rockies, as underdogs at +155, have an implied odds of winning of 38%. Based on these odds, the Reds have a high implied team total of 5.09 runs, while the Rockies’ implied total is 3.91 runs.

Overall, the Reds have the upper hand in this matchup, especially with Montas on the mound and Steer swinging a hot bat. While both teams have significant weaknesses, the predictions favor Cincinnati to win.

Quick shots of the Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland is using his fastball more this season (52.6% compared to 46.7% last year) and that’s not ideal since fastballs are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

  • Fastballs are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts. A pitcher who uses his fastball more often will therefore likely be less effective than before.

Ezequiel Tovar has been struggling with his Barrel% lately, dropping from a 7.8% season percentage to 0% over the last 14 days.

  • Barrel% indicates how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle. This is a great way to measure underlying power.

According to the leading forecasting system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen is the ninth-worst in the game.

  • Most gamblers only look at the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen actually makes the opposing team an easier opponent and leads to more runs in a game.

Short summary of Cincinnati Reds:

Of all the teams competing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing (or in this case allowing) hits and runs.

Jonathan India’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year, with his average velocity of 92.4 mph from last season dropping to 87 mph.

  • Most home runs are fly balls, and the harder those fly balls are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Austin Slater has a 97% strikeout rate (40.1%) and is fortunate enough to hit his fly balls into the ninth-shallowest RF fences in baseball.

  • This player’s skills are particularly well suited to the park he is playing on today, which could lead to better performances than usual.

Game Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have had a Game Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+12.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have reached the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 30 road games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has reached the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+14.00 Units / 16% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final score: Colorado Rockies 4.3 vs. Cincinnati Reds 5.16

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